Earlier this week the National Hockey League staged its annual junior draft. Like everything in our Covid-19 world it was a very different affair. But the fundamentals remain unchanged and again it was very apparent the similarities with the process of buying yearlings.
While the draft was underway so was the pandemic auction at the Lexington Selected Yearling Sale. More so than the junior draft, the auction was noticeably impacted by the virus. Attendance was noticeably thin as compared to past years.
There are seven rounds to the junior draft with 31 selections allowed per round by the various professional teams. This year was considered a draft very deep in talent with the first 10 players identified as having legitimate opportunity to make an NHL squad in their first attempt. But the odds changed after that.
Hockey analyst Brian Burke offered a memorable insight when he referred to the rest of the draft as “buying green bananas.” His view is that while a number of the players could make the NHL it would be more likely later than sooner. Most were in need of physical maturation, development of more skills, mental maturity or all of the above. It would take varying degrees of time for them to mature into a true professional hockey player.
This is not unlike what happened at the Lexington Sale. Opening night was loaded with horses bred in the purple and those who exceptional physical attributes. Almost to a buyer, they believed that for the prices they were paying, they were getting a prospect that had a good shot at making the big leagues sooner rather than later.
But through sessions two, three and four there were far fewer of those individuals. Those animals in the $20,000-$50,000 bracket are more likely green bananas. They might not knock down the bowling pins at two but at three turn into very useful performers.
The history of the game is littered with such horses. Century Farroh is a good example.
Nova Scotia owner Dave Ratchford paid $17,000 for him at the 2017 London Selected Yearling Sale. He recalled he had a list of some 40-50 possibles in the catalogue and it just happened that The Farroh came along as hype #38 and the price of $17,000 was in the $20,000 bracket Ratchford wanted to spend. That was his green banana
The colt did win $50,000 at two but half of that came when he won the Ontario Grassroots final. In 2019 he ripened though and banked $719,000 which he followed up with another $381,000 to date. The horse sits with $1.1 million earned.
When Bettors Wish came into the ring as hip #502 at the 2017 Selected Yearling Sale, New Jersey horseman Chris Ryder did not have a great deal of opposition in the bidding. The colt was small and it was largely the bargain hunters that remained that late in the week.
But Ryder hung around explicit for this horse and was more than satisfied at the (US)$20,000 price. The horse surprised everyone including Ryder by winning about $350,000 in spite of his lack of physicality.
Last he ripened and banked over $1.7 million. Add to that nearly $300,000 this year and he has $2.3 million in the till.
My favourite horse story along this line is that of Cam Fella.
Ontario horseman Doug Arthur picked the horse at the 1980 Tattersalls Yearling Sale for just $19,000. He too like his great grandson Bettors Wish was small. Even when he had fully matured he was average sized at best. Arthur in one interview reflected that “one of the hardest things to do as a trainer is to look at a yearling and envision what he will physically develop to become.”
It took 11 starts at two for the colt to get his act together. It was not until December of the next year after a trio of episodes of breaking stride that his act came together winning the Valedictory Series at Greenwood Racetrack. He was subsequently sold for $140,000 to Norm Clements and Norm Faulkner, turned over to trainer Pat Crowe to win $2 million and become one of the all-time greats.
Despite success stories such as this, the harness racing game is not built on patience. Punishing costs put pressure on all involved to get results as early as possible. Anecdotal evidence suggests there are fields of horses that could have been very useful and successful performers if allowed to develop at their own pace. No one knows for sure but it is a common belief.
But not everyone is in a rush. The game still has people with limited budgets who play within their means and play the long game. Three year old trotter Pemberton did not go through a public auction being a homebred for Paul and Brenda Walker of Owen Sound.
A hairline fracture kept him from starting at two but look at him now. If he wins the OSS Super Final that would put his winnings at over $350,000 with very little in the way of expenses. Is there any trainer in the game who would not offer a double stall welcome for this horse into their barn today? What is his upside next year?
By the time the Lexington sale finishes later tonight, the buyers will all be contemplating their various purchases. Generally, there is not to much buyer regret at this stage. Come June or even before that could be a very different story. Those ripe bananas are looking over ripe to say the least.
Like the selection of unproven junior hockey players, the process of finding promising race horses is a fascinating exercise. Everyone has their own biases and theories on what they can live with or detest in yearlings. There are countless tales of ones that got missed and those that failed to live up to their hype. Is there anyone who does not feel queazy when the name Maverick comes up. At (US) $1.1 million one year ago in Lexington he sold with the greatest of expectations. So far there is just $2,900 to show for the venture but the final chapter is yet to be written. Or so we hope for the partners.
A fascinating dinner would be to listen in to a conversation between an NHL general manager and a top trainer of young horses comparing notes. There would quite likely be far more similarities than not.
In February of 2014, a visit was made to Southern Oaks Training Center in Florida as part of our annual Two-Year-Olds In Training video series. This particular morning Dr. Ian Moore was on deck to showcase some of his youngsters. He mentioned that it just so happened that NHL Hall of Famer and former general manager of the Montreal Canadiens Serge Savard was going to arrive to watch some of his horses train.
After the filming, Savard chatted with myself about his horses. A mention was made that he must find the development of the young horses must have been of interest to him given his background in watching young hockey players evolve. His response was a classic.
“Yes, but there is a big difference. Unruly horses can be castrated.”
Long live green bananas.